Germany's Demographics
Demography is the social science dealing with statistical measures of populations, including humans. It analyzes several features of populations (including age, health, reproduction as well as migration, education and religion) in order to extrapolate future development. In Germany, the Federal Statistical Office which monitors demographics, estimated the number of inhabitants in 2014 to be more than 80 million people (the 16th most populous country in the world). The estimated average life expectancy is 81 years and the fertility rate is 1.4 children per woman [1] (in contrast to Somalia where life expectancy is less than 50 years and the fertility rate is 6.4 [2]).
Paying it Backward?
These numbers summarize what the demographic change looks like: higher life expectancy with fewer births. People live longer due to better hygiene and medical care. In addition, the more young people are educated and socio-economically situated, the fewer children they have. This is called the demographic-economic paradox [3]. Especially in Germany, the demographic change is critical as the social and health insurance systems are based on an idea called the intergenerational contract (Generationenvertrag). This system, implemented after the Second World War, required jobholders to pay taxes into a pay-as-you-go system to provide financial security for a limited number of elderly retirees [4].
Back then, considering the shape of Germany's population pyramid, the system made sense. People born in these years (1945 -1965) are today commonly referred to as baby boomers [5], which justifies this concept. However, birth rates dropped steadily by 1967, plateauing since 1990 to their current levels. But, low birth rates do not keep people from aging, they only lead to fewer people taking care of an increasing number of older people. Thus, aging of the population is a socio-economic problem, which has to be addressed by significant changes in the financing of social pension programs.
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| Bevoelkerungsentwicklung DeutschlandAdapted from Wikipedia bit.ly/1PMBcCr |
Healthcare and Aging Populations
Retirees are getting older: With improved medical care, the life expectancy at birth rose from an average 50 years in 1900 to an average 78 years in 2008, with women living several years longer than men [6]. Unfortunately, most people do not remain healthy in old age, but develop several age-related comorbidities.
This adds to the socio-economic costs of an aging society, as healthcare burdens increase, with rising costs and a lack of staff. To make things worse, the diseases of the elderly will be accompanied not only by an increase in the number of cases, but also an increase in complexity. Although personalized therapy is a promising solution for many diseases, it requires more extensive diagnostics – this eventually leads to imbalances in the ratio of workload to qualified personnel in the medical sector [7].
In addition, the changes in household structure also play a major role in the outbreak and spreading of infections. In the olden days, families were large and infections spread easily, whereas now families are much smaller. Today, however, those opposed to vaccination ("anti-vaxxers") make society susceptible to explosive outbreaks of numerous diseases [8].
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| Bevölkerungspyramide data source: Statistisches Bundesamt |
Familial Trends
Demographic change does not solely affect societies: it also affects the family by changing its composition. In the 19th century, only a minor proportion of young adults got to know their grandparents. Today, about 80% of people have at least one living grandparent. This causes an increasing demand to nurse the elderly generation, which threatens individuals’ financial, psychological and physical abilities [6]. Thanks to improvements in gender equality and the education of women, the mean age at first childbirth has increased from 21 years in the 1970s to 25 years today. Together, these factors cause a “crunch” situation for people in their 50s and 60s where raising their children and caring for their own parents compete [6].
Demographic change also affects how family members interact and take care of each other: As families become smaller, parents distribute their money and time more equally among their offspring and grandchildren [6].
Demographic change may appear to be a problem of Western countries, but it is definitely a global one. Ten years ago, the WHO reported a global mean age of 27.6 years, with 10% of the population being older than 60 years. By 2050, the United Nations expects the mean age to be 38 years with 22% of people being older than 60. Further, the proportion of children is predicted to decrease from 30% to less than 20% [9]. The socio-economic impact of these changes cannot be ignored.
[1] bit.ly/1ScMbK1
[2] http://bit.ly/1PSObsc
[3] bit.ly/1PMdwy2
[4] http://bit.ly/1KUTobt
[5] http://bit.ly/1JVUjxq
[6] Seltzer and Bianchi, Annu Rev Sociol, 2013
[7] Warth et al., Virchows Arch, 2015
[8] Geard et al., Epidemics, 2015
[9] http://bit.ly/1Is6Qaq
by Bettina Schmerl, PhD student AG Shoichet
This article originally appeared 2016 in CNS Volume 9, Issue 1, The Aging Brain
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